In a steadily rising market, lump sum always wins. The reason is simple: money invested earlier spends more time compounding. If you invest ₹1 lakh today at 12% and the market rises steadily, that money earns returns from day one. If you spread ₹1 lakh over 12 monthly SIPs, only the first ₹8,333 earns returns from month one — the rest enters later at progressively higher prices.
However, real markets are not steady. They fall 20-40% during corrections. If you invest your full corpus just before a crash, you may see your portfolio halved within months — even if it recovers years later. A SIP spread protects you from this timing risk by buying some units at the post-crash lower prices.
The longer your time horizon, the less timing risk matters. Over 15–20 years, the difference between a lump sum invested at a market peak vs. a trough typically disappears. Over 5 years, it can be significant.